Since Oracle killed off client/server application development with Forms 6i, their position has been that new applications should be built building web technology. Oracle has invested heavily in JavaServer Faces together with ADF, which is what they are using for Oracle Fusion Applications. This approach (ADF Faces) is well supported with UI components, documentation, tutorials,and global developer events.
It is possible to build applications with ADF and Java Swing, but this approach is barely documented and not at all pushed by Oracle. So Swing is likely to slowly wither away in the “continue and converge” category.
Oracle has occasionally seen the need to build rich, attractive user interfaces (look at the CRM applications). But when they need to do so, they use Adobe Flash to do it. This means that Oracle does not see JavaFX, which is another rich client technology competing with Flash, as a viable proposition. JavaFX goes into the “continue and converge” bin as well.
The one rich client technology that is impossible to ignore is .NET, and Oracle is indeed supporting .NET very well. Look at the latest issue of Oracle Magazine – .NET development is one of the major themes.
With Sun acquired by Oracle, Java (Swing and JavaFX) is out of the running for future desktop applications – leaving the entire field to Microsoft .NET.